The upwelling of deeper, colder water around Hawai’i is a result of tidal action, occurring every 12-13 hours, but not coinciding with tidal sea level variations. Since the temperature-salinity structure of the water column changes from month to month, the magnitudes and locations of the greatest cold-water upwelling will vary. To predict this tidal action, we use water temperature at 90m (50 fathoms) to determine a water nutrient parameter. This allows us to specify variations in location from day-to-day and month-to-month. The water temperature variations around Hawaii are predicted using high-resolution, dynamic, numerical ocean models. The models are a version of the Princeton Ocean Model (see http://www.ccpo.odu.edu/POMWEB/) and cover Kauai/Niihau, Oahu, and Hawai’i Island. POM solves primitive, partial differential equations based on the conservation of energy, momentum, mass, heat, salt, and turbulence.
The initial three-dimensional temperature and salinity (T-S) fields for the POM come from the U.S. Navy's Pacific NCOM model. We use the NCOM dynamic climatology which represents the actual T-S structure for a given day for a given month. The models are calibrated and verified for tidal forcing. Our approach results in ocean temperature variations that are physically consistent and dynamically-balanced. The models utilize appropriate tidal forcing for the three major semi-diurnal tidal constituents (S2, M2, and N2 tides) and the three major diurnal tidal constituents (K1, P1, and O1 tides). Each model simulation produces a field of amplitudes and phases for a given constituent. From these fields, we can produce accurate predictions of a water nutrient predictor for a given location and time.
A graphic is used to show the spatial variations of the magnitudes of nutrient upwelling. The user uses the graphic to select a location for which he wants a prediction of the times of maximum nutrient upwelling. After selecting a start time for the prediction, the app uses the appropriate tidal amplitudes and phases and the mean longitudes of the sun, moon, and lunar perigee to generate a 6 day prediction. In addition to the times of maximum nutrient content in the water column, the phase of the moon for each time is provided.
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